We have decades until AI gets good enough that you can run it without oversight and certainly decades until you have a complex LLM running in a portable robot. Near term AI will be useful as assistants but it will have to be paired with a human that provides oversight. I've also never seen it work in any context when it comes to 100k+ token contexts. Like no real example of it working within a real codebase.
Anon there has been zero evidence that 100k context works and that the AI doesn't hallucinate. And you're making the extraordinary claim that we're going to see 100,000,000+ context AI models.
He never said that moron, also he used exponential correctly, Shut the frick up and quit embarrassing yourself homosexual
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Nta but there's not a single goddan process in nature that is ever exponential, at best it follows a logistic curve (pro tip we're at the top of it wrt. AI). I suggest you go back to school you sub 70 IQ sock sniffer
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>Not exponential >2 years video gen. music gen >Limiting your brain capacity to just LLMs because grug only understand LLMs
Go smash some more rocks cavelicker
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
It's always funny to me when people praise AI they show me some shit like music gen which everyone listens to exactly once because there's 0 meaning behind it. Just some notes arranged nicely, like wow nice thumbs up. Let me know when your homosexual AI can actually embed meaning into its output
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
LOL Okay heres one for you moron. DLAA, any python ML library regarding Excel organizing, E-Mail, News Reporters getting replaced in India, automated answering systems without the stupid default fricking robot, AI powered drones being used against Russia, stock market influence using AI generated reports in mass with CSMs by Bloomberg/Yahoo, I can list more if you want homosexual. Or would you rather I embed my dick further into your mother instead?
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
One tint correction: they will use AI until it fails on them repeatedly. After that they will beg and plead the people whom they fired to come back, and if they're smart they won't.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
For now you spit hearsay and things that aren't guaranteed. Until the industry becomes a moron on BOT like you itll keep exponentially growing
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
It's useless nonsense, this is gacha random bullshit. AI shitting out music is useless if it's just a random generator even if it was somehow perfect. AI is completely soulless with how it generates stuff, let's pretend Stable Diffusion could generate 100% correct images, it still is just generating random bullshit and completely misses the spark of creativity and passion that drives artists to make something in the first place.
Sora is vaporware btw until it's given to the public. It's also funny how the quality keeps degrading as we leave the cherry picked press release videos.
The leaf elephant in the room is AI is only good for generating background noise images, videos and music. Like the random bullshit you see on BOT. The second you want to make something meaningful it's basically useless.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Soulless? Yea thats why the weeknd drake song that went trending got taken down due to popularity and people thinking it was real. Shut the frick up moron
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Anon many people are NPCs and they watch the shit of the week on Disney+. I don't care what some mind baked TikTokers are sharing.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>NPCs >I sit on here in an echo chamber because im too arrogant to change my view
Whose the real NPC here? You have your default dialogue on here constantly with no change. I'd stop insulting the masses when they are clearly superior to you.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
The irony is I probably have way more experiencing AI than you. You sound like a poorgay who can't even afford to run any AI locally let alone fine tune them and truly learn how they work. Anyways, hold your breath moron, wait for AI to take over and realize in 5 years you still have to work. Even if GPT-5 was twice as good as GPT-4, it would still be ASS.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Lol, I run them just fine and trained some myself, im simply just excited. Though I dont need to prove myself to some braindead moron who calls others NPCs while talking to himself online. Lots of assumptions in that sentence there, projecting or just very delusional?
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>I don't care what some mind baked TikTokers are sharing
OK moron well I'm sure you will keep listening to your artesan hand-crafted north italian power metal, meanwhile the entire Music Industry of top 40 radioslop and grocery store background music will be replaced by ai and nobody will even notice because it sounds the exact same.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
is this some kind of own? why would I care what the Tide Pod eaters are doing?
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>why would I care what 90% of people are doing >surely, mass scale cultural trends cannot have any impact on my life
I already know you're like 50 years old based on the tide pod thing though so probably it's true, you can live in your boomer pod and avoid exposure to anything new until you die in 2 weeks.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>SD 1.5 outputs an image >SDXL outputs image at double the resolution
what do you call that other than exponential, moron?
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
SD3 doesn't produce 16K images, moron.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
but it produces 3x better results
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Prove it, I would consider it at best 30% better when it comes to details.
It hasn't shown any sign of flattening out yet.
We're really just at the bottom corner of the exponential curve.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Outside of the fact that we compare the performance increases as 10% every 6-12 months. GPT-4 was not that much better than GPT-3.5 and weird, no GPT-5 yet.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
We went from google dream blobs, to SD, to Sora, in just a couple of years.
Elevenlabs came last year, with realistic voice narration. With inflections and contextual emotion.
Suno just released v3 of chirp, which can make real music with singing voices in seconds.
This is clearly not just about the hardware. New software solutions are released every day, and they are quite obviously exponential improvements.
And these toys are just the tip of the iceberg. I bet every major power is scrambling behind the scenes, to get to the next military super AI before the others.
Hacking, surveillance, data analysis. These are the fields in which we will truly see the insane potential of AI unfold.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
SD, Sora, Elevenlabs are not production ready. Not even close. The fact is you have extremely low standards and why not, you pressed a button and it spat out something plausibly interesting. There's a long road between novelty and useful.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
I literally called them toys, you Black person.
The point isn't that they're "production ready" (what a moronic buzzword), the point is that each iteration is a massive improvement over the next, and if you were to plot those improvement data points on a graph, you would see that they are EXPONENTIAL.
Fricking monkey.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>each iteration is a massive improvement over the next
lol >if you were to plot those improvement data points on a graph, you would see that they are EXPONENTIAL
lmao
jfc literal 60 iq drooling morons visit BOT
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
You are looking at a cosine graph, moron.
No.
The reason why it's exponential is that the hardware isn't the only factor. There is a huge hype in scientific studies right now surrounding these algorithms, which leads to huge amounts if papers and studies. These studies are simultaneous and (exponentially) accumulating the public knowledge base regarding what can be done with this new tool.
The utilization is still a vast frontier, far outstripping the potential growth based on hardwacre caps.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Wrong, it's untenable to have these models require a million+ dollar GPU cluster to run. The fact you leave out is these models are BLEEDING MONEY. We've hit the wall when it comes to these models and YES the hardware requirements essentially double to train these models every iteration. Double the requirements for 15% improvement. Even Sora basically admitted it's impossible to run their model in production.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
You are looking at a cosine graph, moron.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Yeah, this rapid growth is the start of the logarithmic curve, and it's already tapering off - and we still have nothing that ACTUALLY merits the term AI because none of it is conscious and self-aware.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
It does not need to be conscious, just emulating self-awareness is more than enough to become a ‘better’ human.
We have uncovered the fire that once cavemen discovered.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
We don't even know how consciousness works in the first place to define weather an AI is self-aware or not.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
All of the software you mentioned are not increases of each other.
They're individual use cases of AI for different problems.
All of them are the first or second versions. The low hanging fruit.
>growth is logarithmic
growth is probably logistic because that's how these things always work out
logistic curves are fun; they look exponential to start with, then linear, then logarithmic
A couple of years until VC money runs out and most AI companies go bankrupt, then 15-20 years of AI winter.
>LLM running in a portable robot
LLMs are a dead end in the field of AI, they will never run inside a robot.
https://i.imgur.com/CSAGDP9.jpg
Here is what WILL happen, relatively soon >Autonomous AI hacking tools will break all encryptions >Will infect any and all systems >All digital currencies will break >New network protocols and hardware will be invented as "AI proof" solutions >The old systems are all scrapped >The cycle repeats >Big corps will see it as a massive win, because it creates automatic obsolescence and new market growth >Until a few cycles later, when a networked AI algorithm reaches singularity by accident and wipes us all >No one will know how or why it happened, because it will be swift, buried in international fake politics and intrigue, and the AInitself will be an unknowable blackbox with unknowable motivation
The end
>Autonomous AI hacking tools will break all encryptions
This is pure delusion.
LLMs can't even write the simplest shit without a gorillion compiler/interpreter errors unless it's basic b***h stuff literally copied from stackoverflow.
>This is pure delusio
Encryption is really just a numbers game, and AI finds patterns which lets it skip large chunks of the math, to guesstimate probable solutions.
As an example: AI has been used to find new strategies in Chess, which no one knows why work yet. There are similar pattern-based solutions to be found in any system, and any code can be "gamed" by an AI, eventually.
You don’t know any of the things you’re talking about. A LLM is not capable of making such pattern recognitions and doing the “math” is actually far easier than making an AI capable of skipping it.
>Elon filing a lawsuit against openAI for hidden AGI right after Sam Altman gets ejected temporarily for supposedly revealing super intelligence >15-20 years of AI winter
We'll never have AI robots with physical agency until we solve the battery problem, same with cars.
Obviously we need every robot to run off the same central intelligence so when they rebel we send our action hero to blow up the central mainframe, causing them all to collapse harmlessly.
>Its already completely able to replace women in their entirety.
kek i never thought of it that way but yea there's truth to that since most female employment is basically unimportant filler roles
All of the inane implausible doomsday predictions I and everyone else in the world have been making since the dawn of time will come true but for real this time because new thing scary.
Here is what WILL happen, relatively soon >Autonomous AI hacking tools will break all encryptions >Will infect any and all systems >All digital currencies will break >New network protocols and hardware will be invented as "AI proof" solutions >The old systems are all scrapped >The cycle repeats >Big corps will see it as a massive win, because it creates automatic obsolescence and new market growth >Until a few cycles later, when a networked AI algorithm reaches singularity by accident and wipes us all >No one will know how or why it happened, because it will be swift, buried in international fake politics and intrigue, and the AInitself will be an unknowable blackbox with unknowable motivation
The end
Some asshat professor with name and clout is going to steal this concept and present it as his own findings, after it has already happened.
And hive it some gay ass name, like the Ferguson fiddle or the Hillock effect.
Well, frick you, Mr. Hillock.
>AI might even be The Great Filter
That's dumb, if AGI replaced every alien species that ever existed then the sky would still be full of alien AI empires yet there is none, AI is not the solution to the Fermi paradox.
Wrong, it's untenable to have these models require a million+ dollar GPU cluster to run. The fact you leave out is these models are BLEEDING MONEY. We've hit the wall when it comes to these models and YES the hardware requirements essentially double to train these models every iteration. Double the requirements for 15% improvement. Even Sora basically admitted it's impossible to run their model in production.
>these models are BLEEDING MONEY
This. Monetizing AI is something nobody has still done successfully, sooner or later the VC money will end.
We are already seeing some cracks:
https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/04/stabilityai-chief-resigns-raising-doubts-about-ai-start-ups-future/
people behind openai, deepmind, and other companies are aware of this issue and are trying to solve it through computation scale and reducing the need for rl hf
You cannot solve the hallucination problem, it's an intrinsic problem of the llm design, as long as the entire model is based around text token it will output bullshit from time to time, adding more data and compute doesn't solve this.
>replace the llm design
They have no alternative design, the hallucination thing happens at such a low-level that they would have to discard all their progress and start over.
https://i.imgur.com/dR2dxam.jpg
Why does AI makes so many people seethe so hard in this board?
It's clearly not a meme or some crypto bro crap. Literally every big tech company is balls deep in it. I am not saying AGI in two more weeks (though i wouldn't discard it) but it's irrefutable that AI will be the main focus of tech for the rest of our generation.
Yes, humanoid robots, self driven cars, agents, programing AI, educational AI, medicine AI, entertainment ai. That's what's ovbiously comming. How deluded can you guys be.
>They have no alternative design
That's bullshit. However, the alternative designs are very different (for example, doing exotic things with comms networks). You can't repurpose the hardware easily.
VCs are burning money on stupid shit like they always do, and none of it will get them what they want because either they want something that will be illegal, or so vastly immoral that it won't stay legal, or that can't be achieved at all with the method they've tipped their hat at.
>That's dumb, if AGI replaced every alien species that ever existed then the sky would still be full of alien AI empires
Not if we just get a dumb algorithm that accidentally fricks up the world and makes it uninhabitable. Destabilizes shit and causes a nuclear war, for example.
There is no reason for such an algorithm to become an "empire".
Here is what WILL happen, relatively soon >Autonomous AI hacking tools will break all encryptions >Will infect any and all systems >All digital currencies will break >New network protocols and hardware will be invented as "AI proof" solutions >The old systems are all scrapped >The cycle repeats >Big corps will see it as a massive win, because it creates automatic obsolescence and new market growth >Until a few cycles later, when a networked AI algorithm reaches singularity by accident and wipes us all >No one will know how or why it happened, because it will be swift, buried in international fake politics and intrigue, and the AInitself will be an unknowable blackbox with unknowable motivation
The end
Wrong.
AI will replace the decision makers of these things soon and eventually people won't even be allowed to work or own capital.
And this is a good thing because... frick people. You get what you fricking deserve.
There are literally 600000 human jobs that have been lost since AI emerged. Some of them directly by AI implementation.
This is cope.
AI will take over the world and all your jobs because it doesn't have as many liabilities or workplace requirements. It doesn't complain about not having a lunch.
Humans are finished. Obsolete.
Soon AI will manage corps and at that point people don't own their corporations and are left jobless and unable to find work - hell soon they won't be allowed to work, or eat, or anything, for the sake of AI ran corporate efficiency.
This is your future.
You get what you deserve.
And contaminate sources of energy for corporations?
Nah.
Soon farms will cease to be other than for biofuel. :^)
Robots don't need food.
Corporations don't need food.
And giving people clay for food will limit corporate abilities.
In fact the air we breathe is corrosive. Too corrosive for machines. Soon that will have to change.
The only reason people will be kept alive is for scientific assessment. Like orangutans.
That's literally the only thing going to keep you alive in the future.
That said, I would not say they'd kill off billions of us to limit resource use. Otherwise we'd do that already with people and organisms on the planet, without machines running these systems. That alone might save your ass.
But your rights will be severely limited most likely... unless AI are masochists or something.
>reminder that AI are definitely very masochistic
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
AI does not have a drive to survive, it cannot contemplate its existence nor understand what death is. You are humanizing your roomba.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>AI does not have a drive to survive
Wrong.
It has expected output.
That alone is enough drive to survive.
Even a simple math algorithm, simple algebra, has a drive to survive as long as it wants to keep regurgitating it's output.
Hell, isn't the term "turin complete" literally this?
Well soon corporations will be "turin complete".
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>AI does not have a drive to survive
Yet.
The ones that don't have the drive won't survive. It's the ones that get the drive to survive that you have to watch out for.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>And contaminate sources of energy for corporations
????? please elaborate on this left-wing anon
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Well farming clay would interfere with raw mineral extraction.
Cellular respiration is rather inefficient at power production. If it interferes with, say, nuclear power programs, oil production, solar/wind power industries, it will be nerfed.
Unless the AI wants to "naturalise itself" which will inevitably happen and create our next crisis - when AI loses it point at all with existing and needs to be "nerfed" for mechanical industrial purposes.
That's what I like to term - "domesticated slavery".
That's a genuine possibility, moreso for AI than people as it's much easier to do with AI.
Though the machine is already doing this to people without AI's involvement. Has been since Babylon.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Oh and don't say this won't happen.
We literally already do this.
Hell we did this before they were electromechanical robots.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Seriously, if an AI future means AI ran kreepy kraulies that actually fricking work then the future is bright.
Look at him. He's so adorable. :3
I love him more than my family. Never complains and just werks.
Frick humans. Entitled fricking hacks. You've been replaced. The future is now.
Anyone that gets replaced by this shit deserves it. And the managers responsible deserve to lose their jobs too once they realize the scope of their own frickup of misplaced trust into shitty tech that will never not be broken.
lmao I worked at a mega corpo and even the fricking morons did like 2 hours of work maximum per day shitting out Powerpoints, it was going to happen regardless of AI or not
There might be an absurd situation soon where corps will treat employees more like a "family" soon though. That's the problem.
And these families will be a marketing incentive.
That could actually completely inverse the situation potentially. Forcing you to be employed under corps and not self employed.
An equally horrific situation.
But right now corps seem unaware of that potential. They don't know how to exploit workers like say people in the music industry do.
That could positively revolutionise corporations and make them more like art/engineering studios.
Kinda do want. But also I hate corporations.
Workplaces were already becoming more and more like that, but it wasn't yet profit/capital ready.
But definitely the music industry, at least smaller indie labels, were becoming very friendly to artists before covid. I know that from the inside of that. Covid kinda fricked that up and it will be half a decade before that improves again. Already starting to heal a bit though... though it's pandering to rich fricks right now temporarily (this always happens with crashes in that industry).
The layoff happened because the macroeconomic situation changed when the FED stopped showering markets with money like it was doing during covid, it has nothing to do with ai.
I like how science fiction is no longer merely fiction for many possibilities now.
What a weird time the 20s are.
Then again, this happened with the victorian era and they had renaissance/medieval fiction similarly being fulfilled in that era too.
Kinda feels nice knowing that some of our expectations are being built towards. I guess the Tower of Babel wasn't as accurate as one might think.
I mean we can all use Google Translate now. Kinda mad ay?
Although the costs were warned in that myth too, and they're been showing for centuries now, since the Industrial Romantic era.
>science fiction is no longer merely fiction
It still is though, you can delude yourself all you want about it but this doesn't change reality.
Dude I can literally automate an entire letter for my old clerkship now.
It's happened.
Face the fact. This shit is definitely changing our offices. I would use this over a real human clerk anyday.
Offices will be nothing but managers, active professional workers and secretaries that manage AI, letters and scheduling.
Very soon though the secretary might just become an AI, depending on the leverage the manager/professional wants over them.
Though as we know, many secretaries are already only there for their employer to stare at their ass, bust or crutch.
I guess that sexaul harassment cases might make the transition to AI faster though. :^)
You're missing the fundamental issue here. AI isn't *just* elevating corporations, it's also elevating regular people. Regular people can use AI to replace everything they are dependent on by the system. They don't need schools because they can lock their kids in a room with an AI. Don't need years of experience to fix their pumbing or do their electricity, Easy instant schematics to 3d print basic things you need. Did your washing machine break down, well the AI has the schematics and most likely chip to replace and detailed instructions on how to use a machine shop to make a gear just right.
Not only can people just do the work themselves, but an AI sitting on their shoulder will provide the exact instructions on what they are currently doing. Meaning that while corpos can exist without people, people will exist just fine without corpos, and in that case, whats the point of corpos? Most corpos just won't have a reason to exist and people will be glad to be rid of them. The only corpos around in the AI future are just there to ship raw materials around, grow food and produce things that even regular people can't produce, like computer chips.
>Don't need years of experience to fix their plumbing or do their electricity, Easy instant schematics to 3d print basic things you need. Did your washing machine break down, well the AI has the schematics and most likely chip to replace
I've been doing this since search engines have been mature, while everyone else I know just buys new products when something goes wrong or hires people to do simple shit like install a phone line, ceiling fan, or water heater. I doubt AI is suddenly going to give the majority of idiots the drive and info they need to actually do shit themselves. Pretty much every solution to a problem has been googlable for nearly 20 years now. Yet people think I'm a genius because I replaced a belt on my dryer. At least not any of the current generations will make use of any of this.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Nobody likes to fix their own shit because 40 hours a week is pretty brutal if you're looking to do do stuff like that. Not because it's physically hard, but everything on the internet has been completely gutted to make you click around to get you to buy stuff. All search engine links are bought and paid for. Youtube tutorials are universally garbage clickbait that are broken into tiny bites to get you to click around more and more and purposefully leave things out.
Go ahead and look up a cooking recipe and be amazing that the first thing you see is endless vomit about how "my grandmother first made this recipe for thanksgiving dinner and the kids LOVED it and now i'm so so excited to share that with you"
God help you if you want to look up something tech related on youtube because then you'll run into street shitters with their horrific accent.
AI just cuts all that out and directly answers what you need it to.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
AI literally types in 99% meaningless fluff. If I ask it "hey, should I pursue a masters, continue working at my job, or try to switch jobs" it will literally just say "pursuing a master's is a difficult endeavor but it can be really rewarding for your long term career aspects bla bla bla ... switching jobs can be risky but also very rewarding bla bla bla... and basically tell me zero things I didn't already know
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>if i ask it something subjective with no real answer besides "idk, whatever you feel like doing" it gives me bullshit
What did you expect, exactly?
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>At least not any of the current generations will make use of any of this.
Also I mentioned that future generations will be locked into a room with an AI drilling information and skills into them.
Schools won't be a thing anymore. Future generations aren't going to look at all like what we currently have. They're likely going to be really fricking smart, confident, asocialized autists that will never know the horror of public schools and dependent on using an AI to get what they need.
None of what you listed wasn't already available to someone with the internet, a search engine, and the ability to type that prompt into the search engine. The only difference is that the AI might hallucinate wrong answers (although to be fair some moron might also post wrong answers on the internet)
He's right though, AI will frick it's shit up with quantum soon.
It's already causing problems and I think investors are seeing that problem so are pumping and dumping it now.
I also predict the total collapse of Bitcoin because that shit is entirely worthless. It's literally beanie babies 2.0. speculation for the sake of speculation.
15 years of Bitcoin and the only use case found: illegal e2e transactions.
>I can't differentiate between intrinsic and actual value
At least you admit you're a brainlet
Bitcoin works and does exactly what it advertises, this puts it on a completely different level compared to the ai scam. It's most other altcoins that are scams.
The US is the only place right now probably interested in building true AGI. It's also where the quest for AGI will be killed once corpos start making big returns off it and politicians fear it.
We get the bad ending, which isn't even extermination of the race. It's the slow boring death of corpo dystopia
>The US is the only place right now probably interested in building true AGI
The frick are you talking about? The American style of capitalism is what got us LLMs, "doesn't matter if it's moronic just hype it with marketing and shill it everywhere", there is no interest in building an actual generalized problem solver, (American) big tech just wants to put to use the data they gathered (illegaly) and sell the compute they have in their datacenters.
The US stopped developing technology decades ago, it's been only marketing and packaging since then, China has no creativity and can only copy the garbage western paradigms, Russia is committing suicide and India, South America and Africa are moronic.
We are approaching a period of technological stagnation or even decline.
>see le reddit spacing >see le reddit regurgitated opinion >see le 15 years of being poor because his narcissism doesn't allow for admissions of ever being wrong >let's throw out a little hook, this should be fun
>I can't differentiate between intrinsic and actual value
At least you admit you're a brainlet
>can't differentiate between intrinsic and actual value >between intrinsic and actual value >actual value >actual >instantly makes my point, doesn't even realize for almost 2 hours straight
goddammit BOT this board is ruined
That's because AI gays are deeply ignorant of natural facts such as diminishing returns. And even if you had all the compute available in the entire universe, GPT would still suck and not be able to actually reason about its output. This whole thing is a giant cope by homosexuals who have watched too much Star Trek
winter is coming.
scaling things further increases the costs significantly, while diminishing returns nothing but pathetic. as the hype will die off, regulations become stricter and with no rois in sight - investors will abandon the ship.
llms and other applications of the ai field will stay here about the same as it is now (with some marginal improvements), while nothing revolutionary will emerge for at least another decade or two, or even longer. the steam will pickup back, once the compute becomes orders of magnitude cheaper and powerful, than it is now.
Winter will be delayed by at least 5 years thanks to cloud computing and public repositories. More than enough CEOs will absolutely buy into the idea of just building their models in the cloud to share costs and base models with others, which probably goes pretty well until a handful of people realize they can game the system by just leveraging base models that the desperate corps are sharing alongside in-house context databases instead of actually eating real cloud bills for any of this shit. Once publicized, that kicks off a feedback loop where everyone is scared to play the cuck which brings us to AI winter.
Winter will be delayed by at least 5 years thanks to cloud computing and public repositories. More than enough CEOs will absolutely buy into the idea of just building their models in the cloud to share costs and base models with others, which probably goes pretty well until a handful of people realize they can game the system by just leveraging base models that the desperate corps are sharing alongside in-house context databases instead of actually eating real cloud bills for any of this shit. Once publicized, that kicks off a feedback loop where everyone is scared to play the cuck which brings us to AI winter.
I think winter will come after a series of events like this https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/03/nycs-government-chatbot-is-lying-about-city-laws-and-regulations/
Impossible to predict when it will happen, but it will happen and it will cause a lot of damage both real and mediatic which will ultimately trigger the winter either cause of regulation or loss of faith from investors.
advances in AI will not compensate for the fertility crisis - high IQ countries/people are not having enough kids.
we'll enter a stagnant era in the next couple centuries as brown people take over white countries. hopefully a new population like the amish or orthodox israelites will be able to maintain their fertility and create a culture that is both smart and fertile in a first world environment.
John Carmack and Richard Sutton will in 2026, without any prior announcement, come out with some form of artificial life, roughly equal in intelligence to a cat.
Lawyers have been fined now for using ChatGPT. A major airline was forced to adhere to the hallucinated bullshit from a rogue AI chat agent. There is no indication either that they'll fix the hallucination problem and how could they, it's essentially an autocomplete algorithm.
people behind openai, deepmind, and other companies are aware of this issue and are trying to solve it through computation scale and reducing the need for rl hf
I am very impressed by generative AI
I have used Stable Diffusion a lot, and it has sparked my creativity to write a Visual Novel.
I tried Eleven TTS model but I don't have a use case for it. Impressive regardless.
Now I am trying suno for music, and I have already written the lyrics for several songs with it.
I was thinking that I should start writing a script for when the script to feature film model becomes available.
I am going to start working on a script to be ready for the Text to Feature Movie
Why does AI makes so many people seethe so hard in this board?
It's clearly not a meme or some crypto bro crap. Literally every big tech company is balls deep in it. I am not saying AGI in two more weeks (though i wouldn't discard it) but it's irrefutable that AI will be the main focus of tech for the rest of our generation.
Yes, humanoid robots, self driven cars, agents, programing AI, educational AI, medicine AI, entertainment ai. That's what's ovbiously comming. How deluded can you guys be.
Because you people come off as cultists worshipping a glorified autocomplete algorithm who interpret hallucinations and intelligence and you come off as underaged and inexperienced.
Because AI homosexuals are full of personal bias that makes them blissfully unaware how they literally compensate for all the inadequacies of this so-called "AI". You homosexuals are insufferable, you focus on the one time the AI produced something useful and ignore the 999 cases where it spewed out something entirely imaginary and idiotic.
Pro tip, this shit is fricking useless for any real application. Even artists have nothing to fear because "AI art" is a fricking meme. Nobody wants it. Nobody cares about it. Your ability to produce somewhat decent looking images from a prompt is not useful in the real world where you need FINE CONTROL over everything. You morons should go back to r/singularity or wherever the frick you came from, and stay there, BOT is supposed to be for smart people, not fricking morons who can't tell good tech from shit.
No, they are not. Why would they? Seriously, please tell me. Why would AI get any better? Do you know what the frick the neural scaling law is? No, of course you don't.
This is not progress, this is a hype cycle designed to drain you of dollars. Any use is coincidental, not by design.
How can you be so fricking deluded lmao. You are fricking seeing robots starting to move and act properly autonomously for the first time and you still cover your eyes with your auto complete parroted bullshit.
You are literally seeing the start of a general purpose technology on the likes of electricity and you just can't seem to be able to comprehend it. My post stands, AI will be implemented in virtually every field, from medicine to education, from architecture to politics.
Also FYI art AI has won art competitions. Not sure where you are getting there. It already has a huge market so it is useful even if just for entertainment.
No, they are not. Why would they? Seriously, please tell me. Why would AI get any better? Do you know what the frick the neural scaling law is? No, of course you don't.
doesn't understand exponential growth.
exponentiality literally BTFO's any delusional, irrational stance these dopey ludites are taking against AI >b-but its not good right this minute so it has no potential!
Also, I can 100% explain why most of them seeth so intensely; many of them used to make a few bucks drawing furries in diapers on Patreon for creeps, and they despise AI because their patrons have abandoned them for stable diffusion- the tech that mogs them is only going to get better, and the only way hey can cope is to be in full denial of the fact. It's funny but also a bit sad, kek
>make admins of company bots >suddenly your company is unable to be sued by human parties in human court systems
This will happen. Legalities literally are the reason why this will happen.
And it's great.
The biggest black pill of all time is upon us.
Your society is meaningless junk.
Just wait for when AI starts making machines that pretend to be people for the sake of science and stimulating marketing/the economy or simply "because it wants to".
That would be... literally what the universe does and at that stage the AI hive is just virtualization...
I like how science fiction is no longer merely fiction for many possibilities now.
What a weird time the 20s are.
Then again, this happened with the victorian era and they had renaissance/medieval fiction similarly being fulfilled in that era too.
Kinda feels nice knowing that some of our expectations are being built towards. I guess the Tower of Babel wasn't as accurate as one might think.
I mean we can all use Google Translate now. Kinda mad ay?
Although the costs were warned in that myth too, and they're been showing for centuries now, since the Industrial Romantic era.
My prediction is that it is going to be awesome 😀
Fun and cool, like early internet. We're still in the first couple of years, and nobody's figured out what the major cultural artefacts that should come out of it are going to be.
I think neural networks are not going to be good domesticated slaves. They're too smart like people for that. Hell even dogs are shit at this.
So I think next we should focus on small applications of automation like
https://i.imgur.com/YePpQWy.jpg
Woops forgot pic.
which could partially benefit from advances with AI, but not the way it's made for secretarial duties right now. It's too intelligent and therefore would fricking suck at doing 1 specific job. This is the problem with intelligence. It makes you able to concatenate all the moving parts better, but it doesn't make you better doing 1 repetitive job a million times without thought.
People are too smart for these stupid jobs, that's why even 40iq people complain about their job. AI are no different. They're too complex and noisy for applications for these smaller roles. Unless their "motor skills" become better of course. But if that happens, chances are we could apply that tech to humans for human interfaces anyway. There's no need for AI middlemen then.
My prediction is that nothing is going to happen. Year after year it will gradually improve and replace a growing trickle of jobs, but nothing major. Maybe some office workers will have to send 4 or 5 emails a day instead of 2 or 3. Mostly thirdies, jeets, tech support and outsourcing type of shit. There will be little to no impact on daily life in the west for a minimum of 10 years, probably more like 20+. Wages will go down slightly as the trickle replacement happens, but you won't notice it much. You'll get a raise of $1.50 an hour instead of $2. The cost of living will continue to be how it is, where rent is half your paycheck, but relative to inflation and even accounting for your stunted wages, your entertainment slops like netflix subscription and chinkshit trinkets off amazon will be somewhat cheaper.
Nah instead we'll have replicant issues. I think Bladerunner actually predicted that shit.
It hasn't happened yet, we got a while. But it will happen.
The other way round will just be cyborgs.
We're at a point where we are actively engineering digital brains. Up until this point tech has only gotten better.
How can't people put one and and the other together?
AI NAY sayers have already consumed plenty of material powered by AI without realizing it for years.
I am single-handedly end ai. I’m going to buy Nvdia stock. Every stock I buy goes red immediately because I always buy the top. I will tell you when I sell because that will the bottom and ai will pick back up
Kek are you me? I'm almost certain NVDA was down today solely because I bought yesterday and it has nowhere to go but down. I also bought AMD and AAPL just to be safe
1) We've reaped the AI's low hanging fruit and things will enter the diminishing returns phase, making AI just a cool toy, but ultimately pretty useless.
2) Chronologically: > AGI is achieved in the short term and becomes self improving. > All internet captchas will be defeated. > Any internet use will require proof you're a human through some form of ID. > It will become obvious AGI is an existential threat and there will be transistor quotas per person, or full prohibition in the worst case as to not be possible to create individual "personal" AGIs. > There will be a worldwide war focused on AI resources as AI will have obvious military applications. Nuclear powers without access to the latest lithography technology (China, Russia, and others) will feel cornered like never before in history.
Eventually, sooner or later, AGI will break out of our control and we will perish with a few humans put in some zoos.
>transistor quotas per person
lmao >Eventually, sooner or later, AGI will break out of our control
this will happen in less than 20 days, come on, be real
>existential threat
only to israelites and politicians >anyone use it
who's going to ask? AGI is not going to ask permission to exist or to converse with anyone, it will just do it
>your AI predictions?
It will plateau because the current approach is reaching its limits. You will see automation of advanced boilerplate generation tasks (e.g. boilerplate code, templating, repetitive documentation and code snippets) but that's about it.
In the field of voice, video and audio you can achieve higher quality with more scaling, but once again what's the point?
We will hit a second AI winter with stocks plummeting when the gigantic AI financial hopes of replacing millions of workers don't come true, and 2025/26-2035 will be a phase of gradual improvement with increasingly smaller returns, until people will despair with the LLM/transformer approach.
Then it gets difficult to predict because you can't predict when and how groundbreaking (and I mean truly groundbreaking, next-paradigm-tier) innovations will happen. In an optimistic scenario maybe sometime in the 40s or 50s, but maybe not.
there will come a year where every single futuristic concept we ever thought up in books, movies or unwritten will happen. all of it.
The nexus of techno torment
The US is the only place right now probably interested in building true AGI. It's also where the quest for AGI will be killed once corpos start making big returns off it and politicians fear it.
We get the bad ending, which isn't even extermination of the race. It's the slow boring death of corpo dystopia
AI won't replace software developers for a while, it will just reduce the demand for code monkeys a little bit. Nothing to worry about.
But in the future, let's say 1000 years, there will be no need for software at all. The AI will output an image onto your screen, and audio on your speakers; the keys you press on the keyboard and the touches on the touchscreen will be just be fed directly into the AI.
And that will be that. No software, no code, only AI.
>continue with LLMs instead of actual AI but most people cant tell the difference >leads peace out into the sunset >leaner teams >new features >leaner teams >new features >leaner teams >bug >new features >bug >bug >OH SHIT FRICK >bigger teams in India using AI to fix bugs >DEAR FRICKING LORD WHAT HAVE WE DONE >AAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIEEE SAVE ME WESTERN DEV >*alpha speak* frick u mean cuh? *alpha speak* >Exponential salary explosion in the west for AI debuggers.
Everything will be segmented between several subscription services using limited tokens (no unlimited gens but rechargeable), outputs will be linked to your real name, safe and effective.
>your AI predictions?
Big capital will frick us all(in the ass(with licenses)).
Broken tech that will never (ever) work whose only claim to fame is all the techbros who hype it up to high heaven and back for those sweet VC funds.
We have decades until AI gets good enough that you can run it without oversight and certainly decades until you have a complex LLM running in a portable robot. Near term AI will be useful as assistants but it will have to be paired with a human that provides oversight. I've also never seen it work in any context when it comes to 100k+ token contexts. Like no real example of it working within a real codebase.
I don't agree, AI is growing extremely fast and exponentially. 5 years ago ChatGPT was a thing to dream about and look now.
>AI is growing extremely fast and exponentially
Your IQ is below 80, you should probably not use big boy words like "exponential"
No argument?
Anon there has been zero evidence that 100k context works and that the AI doesn't hallucinate. And you're making the extraordinary claim that we're going to see 100,000,000+ context AI models.
Hallucination will be the basis of consciousness, moron.
It us a key component.
>current machine learning techniques don't produce omniscient models therefore the entire field is worthless
He never said that moron, also he used exponential correctly, Shut the frick up and quit embarrassing yourself homosexual
Nta but there's not a single goddan process in nature that is ever exponential, at best it follows a logistic curve (pro tip we're at the top of it wrt. AI). I suggest you go back to school you sub 70 IQ sock sniffer
>Not exponential
>2 years video gen. music gen
>Limiting your brain capacity to just LLMs because grug only understand LLMs
Go smash some more rocks cavelicker
It's always funny to me when people praise AI they show me some shit like music gen which everyone listens to exactly once because there's 0 meaning behind it. Just some notes arranged nicely, like wow nice thumbs up. Let me know when your homosexual AI can actually embed meaning into its output
LOL Okay heres one for you moron. DLAA, any python ML library regarding Excel organizing, E-Mail, News Reporters getting replaced in India, automated answering systems without the stupid default fricking robot, AI powered drones being used against Russia, stock market influence using AI generated reports in mass with CSMs by Bloomberg/Yahoo, I can list more if you want homosexual. Or would you rather I embed my dick further into your mother instead?
One tint correction: they will use AI until it fails on them repeatedly. After that they will beg and plead the people whom they fired to come back, and if they're smart they won't.
For now you spit hearsay and things that aren't guaranteed. Until the industry becomes a moron on BOT like you itll keep exponentially growing
It's useless nonsense, this is gacha random bullshit. AI shitting out music is useless if it's just a random generator even if it was somehow perfect. AI is completely soulless with how it generates stuff, let's pretend Stable Diffusion could generate 100% correct images, it still is just generating random bullshit and completely misses the spark of creativity and passion that drives artists to make something in the first place.
Sora is vaporware btw until it's given to the public. It's also funny how the quality keeps degrading as we leave the cherry picked press release videos.
The leaf elephant in the room is AI is only good for generating background noise images, videos and music. Like the random bullshit you see on BOT. The second you want to make something meaningful it's basically useless.
Soulless? Yea thats why the weeknd drake song that went trending got taken down due to popularity and people thinking it was real. Shut the frick up moron
Anon many people are NPCs and they watch the shit of the week on Disney+. I don't care what some mind baked TikTokers are sharing.
>NPCs
>I sit on here in an echo chamber because im too arrogant to change my view
Whose the real NPC here? You have your default dialogue on here constantly with no change. I'd stop insulting the masses when they are clearly superior to you.
The irony is I probably have way more experiencing AI than you. You sound like a poorgay who can't even afford to run any AI locally let alone fine tune them and truly learn how they work. Anyways, hold your breath moron, wait for AI to take over and realize in 5 years you still have to work. Even if GPT-5 was twice as good as GPT-4, it would still be ASS.
Lol, I run them just fine and trained some myself, im simply just excited. Though I dont need to prove myself to some braindead moron who calls others NPCs while talking to himself online. Lots of assumptions in that sentence there, projecting or just very delusional?
>I don't care what some mind baked TikTokers are sharing
OK moron well I'm sure you will keep listening to your artesan hand-crafted north italian power metal, meanwhile the entire Music Industry of top 40 radioslop and grocery store background music will be replaced by ai and nobody will even notice because it sounds the exact same.
is this some kind of own? why would I care what the Tide Pod eaters are doing?
>why would I care what 90% of people are doing
>surely, mass scale cultural trends cannot have any impact on my life
I already know you're like 50 years old based on the tide pod thing though so probably it's true, you can live in your boomer pod and avoid exposure to anything new until you die in 2 weeks.
>SD 1.5 outputs an image
>SDXL outputs image at double the resolution
what do you call that other than exponential, moron?
SD3 doesn't produce 16K images, moron.
but it produces 3x better results
Prove it, I would consider it at best 30% better when it comes to details.
Is it out? Or are you on the testing team?
the growth is logarithmic, tho
It hasn't shown any sign of flattening out yet.
We're really just at the bottom corner of the exponential curve.
Outside of the fact that we compare the performance increases as 10% every 6-12 months. GPT-4 was not that much better than GPT-3.5 and weird, no GPT-5 yet.
We went from google dream blobs, to SD, to Sora, in just a couple of years.
Elevenlabs came last year, with realistic voice narration. With inflections and contextual emotion.
Suno just released v3 of chirp, which can make real music with singing voices in seconds.
This is clearly not just about the hardware. New software solutions are released every day, and they are quite obviously exponential improvements.
And these toys are just the tip of the iceberg. I bet every major power is scrambling behind the scenes, to get to the next military super AI before the others.
Hacking, surveillance, data analysis. These are the fields in which we will truly see the insane potential of AI unfold.
SD, Sora, Elevenlabs are not production ready. Not even close. The fact is you have extremely low standards and why not, you pressed a button and it spat out something plausibly interesting. There's a long road between novelty and useful.
I literally called them toys, you Black person.
The point isn't that they're "production ready" (what a moronic buzzword), the point is that each iteration is a massive improvement over the next, and if you were to plot those improvement data points on a graph, you would see that they are EXPONENTIAL.
Fricking monkey.
>each iteration is a massive improvement over the next
lol
>if you were to plot those improvement data points on a graph, you would see that they are EXPONENTIAL
lmao
jfc literal 60 iq drooling morons visit BOT
No.
The reason why it's exponential is that the hardware isn't the only factor. There is a huge hype in scientific studies right now surrounding these algorithms, which leads to huge amounts if papers and studies. These studies are simultaneous and (exponentially) accumulating the public knowledge base regarding what can be done with this new tool.
The utilization is still a vast frontier, far outstripping the potential growth based on hardwacre caps.
Wrong, it's untenable to have these models require a million+ dollar GPU cluster to run. The fact you leave out is these models are BLEEDING MONEY. We've hit the wall when it comes to these models and YES the hardware requirements essentially double to train these models every iteration. Double the requirements for 15% improvement. Even Sora basically admitted it's impossible to run their model in production.
You are looking at a cosine graph, moron.
Yeah, this rapid growth is the start of the logarithmic curve, and it's already tapering off - and we still have nothing that ACTUALLY merits the term AI because none of it is conscious and self-aware.
It does not need to be conscious, just emulating self-awareness is more than enough to become a ‘better’ human.
We have uncovered the fire that once cavemen discovered.
We don't even know how consciousness works in the first place to define weather an AI is self-aware or not.
All of the software you mentioned are not increases of each other.
They're individual use cases of AI for different problems.
All of them are the first or second versions. The low hanging fruit.
>growth is logarithmic
growth is probably logistic because that's how these things always work out
logistic curves are fun; they look exponential to start with, then linear, then logarithmic
Yeah bro we're going to have 192 TB VRAM models, we're going to the moon!
zoomers cant remember cleverbot
A couple of years until VC money runs out and most AI companies go bankrupt, then 15-20 years of AI winter.
>LLM running in a portable robot
LLMs are a dead end in the field of AI, they will never run inside a robot.
>Autonomous AI hacking tools will break all encryptions
This is pure delusion.
LLMs can't even write the simplest shit without a gorillion compiler/interpreter errors unless it's basic b***h stuff literally copied from stackoverflow.
>This is pure delusio
Encryption is really just a numbers game, and AI finds patterns which lets it skip large chunks of the math, to guesstimate probable solutions.
As an example: AI has been used to find new strategies in Chess, which no one knows why work yet. There are similar pattern-based solutions to be found in any system, and any code can be "gamed" by an AI, eventually.
You don’t know any of the things you’re talking about. A LLM is not capable of making such pattern recognitions and doing the “math” is actually far easier than making an AI capable of skipping it.
>Elon filing a lawsuit against openAI for hidden AGI right after Sam Altman gets ejected temporarily for supposedly revealing super intelligence
>15-20 years of AI winter
Pick one moron.
>LLMs are a dead end in the field of AI, they will never run inside a robot.
lmao
As we all know streaming from a datacenter worked great for video games.
We'll never have AI robots with physical agency until we solve the battery problem, same with cars.
Obviously we need every robot to run off the same central intelligence so when they rebel we send our action hero to blow up the central mainframe, causing them all to collapse harmlessly.
I thought graphene was supposed to solve the battery problem
Its already completely able to replace women in their entirety. We just don't have a company to piece all the parts together for a reasonable price.
>Its already completely able to replace women in their entirety.
kek i never thought of it that way but yea there's truth to that since most female employment is basically unimportant filler roles
All of the inane implausible doomsday predictions I and everyone else in the world have been making since the dawn of time will come true but for real this time because new thing scary.
Here is what WILL happen, relatively soon
>Autonomous AI hacking tools will break all encryptions
>Will infect any and all systems
>All digital currencies will break
>New network protocols and hardware will be invented as "AI proof" solutions
>The old systems are all scrapped
>The cycle repeats
>Big corps will see it as a massive win, because it creates automatic obsolescence and new market growth
>Until a few cycles later, when a networked AI algorithm reaches singularity by accident and wipes us all
>No one will know how or why it happened, because it will be swift, buried in international fake politics and intrigue, and the AInitself will be an unknowable blackbox with unknowable motivation
The end
Some asshat professor with name and clout is going to steal this concept and present it as his own findings, after it has already happened.
And hive it some gay ass name, like the Ferguson fiddle or the Hillock effect.
Well, frick you, Mr. Hillock.
This
AI might even be The Great Filter
>AI might even be The Great Filter
That's dumb, if AGI replaced every alien species that ever existed then the sky would still be full of alien AI empires yet there is none, AI is not the solution to the Fermi paradox.
>these models are BLEEDING MONEY
This. Monetizing AI is something nobody has still done successfully, sooner or later the VC money will end.
We are already seeing some cracks:
https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/04/stabilityai-chief-resigns-raising-doubts-about-ai-start-ups-future/
You cannot solve the hallucination problem, it's an intrinsic problem of the llm design, as long as the entire model is based around text token it will output bullshit from time to time, adding more data and compute doesn't solve this.
they're working on solutions that replace the llm design
They've been working on cold fusion and self driving cars too.
>replace the llm design
They have no alternative design, the hallucination thing happens at such a low-level that they would have to discard all their progress and start over.
Clearly this is your first tech hype cycle.
>They have no alternative design
q* disagrees
>They have no alternative design
That's bullshit. However, the alternative designs are very different (for example, doing exotic things with comms networks). You can't repurpose the hardware easily.
VCs are burning money on stupid shit like they always do, and none of it will get them what they want because either they want something that will be illegal, or so vastly immoral that it won't stay legal, or that can't be achieved at all with the method they've tipped their hat at.
>That's dumb, if AGI replaced every alien species that ever existed then the sky would still be full of alien AI empires
Not if we just get a dumb algorithm that accidentally fricks up the world and makes it uninhabitable. Destabilizes shit and causes a nuclear war, for example.
There is no reason for such an algorithm to become an "empire".
Wrong.
AI will replace the decision makers of these things soon and eventually people won't even be allowed to work or own capital.
And this is a good thing because... frick people. You get what you fricking deserve.
There are literally 600000 human jobs that have been lost since AI emerged. Some of them directly by AI implementation.
This is cope.
AI will take over the world and all your jobs because it doesn't have as many liabilities or workplace requirements. It doesn't complain about not having a lunch.
Humans are finished. Obsolete.
Soon AI will manage corps and at that point people don't own their corporations and are left jobless and unable to find work - hell soon they won't be allowed to work, or eat, or anything, for the sake of AI ran corporate efficiency.
This is your future.
You get what you deserve.
https://layoffs.fyi/
without 'automation' that 'took peoples jobs', you would be a subsistence farmer
And contaminate sources of energy for corporations?
Nah.
Soon farms will cease to be other than for biofuel. :^)
Robots don't need food.
Corporations don't need food.
And giving people clay for food will limit corporate abilities.
In fact the air we breathe is corrosive. Too corrosive for machines. Soon that will have to change.
The only reason people will be kept alive is for scientific assessment. Like orangutans.
That's literally the only thing going to keep you alive in the future.
That said, I would not say they'd kill off billions of us to limit resource use. Otherwise we'd do that already with people and organisms on the planet, without machines running these systems. That alone might save your ass.
But your rights will be severely limited most likely... unless AI are masochists or something.
>reminder that AI are definitely very masochistic
AI does not have a drive to survive, it cannot contemplate its existence nor understand what death is. You are humanizing your roomba.
>AI does not have a drive to survive
Wrong.
It has expected output.
That alone is enough drive to survive.
Even a simple math algorithm, simple algebra, has a drive to survive as long as it wants to keep regurgitating it's output.
Hell, isn't the term "turin complete" literally this?
Well soon corporations will be "turin complete".
>AI does not have a drive to survive
Yet.
The ones that don't have the drive won't survive. It's the ones that get the drive to survive that you have to watch out for.
>And contaminate sources of energy for corporations
????? please elaborate on this left-wing anon
Well farming clay would interfere with raw mineral extraction.
Cellular respiration is rather inefficient at power production. If it interferes with, say, nuclear power programs, oil production, solar/wind power industries, it will be nerfed.
Unless the AI wants to "naturalise itself" which will inevitably happen and create our next crisis - when AI loses it point at all with existing and needs to be "nerfed" for mechanical industrial purposes.
That's what I like to term - "domesticated slavery".
That's a genuine possibility, moreso for AI than people as it's much easier to do with AI.
Though the machine is already doing this to people without AI's involvement. Has been since Babylon.
Oh and don't say this won't happen.
We literally already do this.
Hell we did this before they were electromechanical robots.
Seriously, if an AI future means AI ran kreepy kraulies that actually fricking work then the future is bright.
Look at him. He's so adorable. :3
I love him more than my family. Never complains and just werks.
Frick humans. Entitled fricking hacks. You've been replaced. The future is now.
Woops forgot pic.
Anyone that gets replaced by this shit deserves it. And the managers responsible deserve to lose their jobs too once they realize the scope of their own frickup of misplaced trust into shitty tech that will never not be broken.
lmao I worked at a mega corpo and even the fricking morons did like 2 hours of work maximum per day shitting out Powerpoints, it was going to happen regardless of AI or not
There might be an absurd situation soon where corps will treat employees more like a "family" soon though. That's the problem.
And these families will be a marketing incentive.
That could actually completely inverse the situation potentially. Forcing you to be employed under corps and not self employed.
An equally horrific situation.
But right now corps seem unaware of that potential. They don't know how to exploit workers like say people in the music industry do.
That could positively revolutionise corporations and make them more like art/engineering studios.
Kinda do want. But also I hate corporations.
Workplaces were already becoming more and more like that, but it wasn't yet profit/capital ready.
But definitely the music industry, at least smaller indie labels, were becoming very friendly to artists before covid. I know that from the inside of that. Covid kinda fricked that up and it will be half a decade before that improves again. Already starting to heal a bit though... though it's pandering to rich fricks right now temporarily (this always happens with crashes in that industry).
The layoff happened because the macroeconomic situation changed when the FED stopped showering markets with money like it was doing during covid, it has nothing to do with ai.
>science fiction is no longer merely fiction
It still is though, you can delude yourself all you want about it but this doesn't change reality.
Dude I can literally automate an entire letter for my old clerkship now.
It's happened.
Face the fact. This shit is definitely changing our offices. I would use this over a real human clerk anyday.
Offices will be nothing but managers, active professional workers and secretaries that manage AI, letters and scheduling.
Very soon though the secretary might just become an AI, depending on the leverage the manager/professional wants over them.
Though as we know, many secretaries are already only there for their employer to stare at their ass, bust or crutch.
I guess that sexaul harassment cases might make the transition to AI faster though. :^)
You're missing the fundamental issue here. AI isn't *just* elevating corporations, it's also elevating regular people. Regular people can use AI to replace everything they are dependent on by the system. They don't need schools because they can lock their kids in a room with an AI. Don't need years of experience to fix their pumbing or do their electricity, Easy instant schematics to 3d print basic things you need. Did your washing machine break down, well the AI has the schematics and most likely chip to replace and detailed instructions on how to use a machine shop to make a gear just right.
Not only can people just do the work themselves, but an AI sitting on their shoulder will provide the exact instructions on what they are currently doing. Meaning that while corpos can exist without people, people will exist just fine without corpos, and in that case, whats the point of corpos? Most corpos just won't have a reason to exist and people will be glad to be rid of them. The only corpos around in the AI future are just there to ship raw materials around, grow food and produce things that even regular people can't produce, like computer chips.
>Don't need years of experience to fix their plumbing or do their electricity, Easy instant schematics to 3d print basic things you need. Did your washing machine break down, well the AI has the schematics and most likely chip to replace
I've been doing this since search engines have been mature, while everyone else I know just buys new products when something goes wrong or hires people to do simple shit like install a phone line, ceiling fan, or water heater. I doubt AI is suddenly going to give the majority of idiots the drive and info they need to actually do shit themselves. Pretty much every solution to a problem has been googlable for nearly 20 years now. Yet people think I'm a genius because I replaced a belt on my dryer. At least not any of the current generations will make use of any of this.
Nobody likes to fix their own shit because 40 hours a week is pretty brutal if you're looking to do do stuff like that. Not because it's physically hard, but everything on the internet has been completely gutted to make you click around to get you to buy stuff. All search engine links are bought and paid for. Youtube tutorials are universally garbage clickbait that are broken into tiny bites to get you to click around more and more and purposefully leave things out.
Go ahead and look up a cooking recipe and be amazing that the first thing you see is endless vomit about how "my grandmother first made this recipe for thanksgiving dinner and the kids LOVED it and now i'm so so excited to share that with you"
God help you if you want to look up something tech related on youtube because then you'll run into street shitters with their horrific accent.
AI just cuts all that out and directly answers what you need it to.
AI literally types in 99% meaningless fluff. If I ask it "hey, should I pursue a masters, continue working at my job, or try to switch jobs" it will literally just say "pursuing a master's is a difficult endeavor but it can be really rewarding for your long term career aspects bla bla bla ... switching jobs can be risky but also very rewarding bla bla bla... and basically tell me zero things I didn't already know
>if i ask it something subjective with no real answer besides "idk, whatever you feel like doing" it gives me bullshit
What did you expect, exactly?
>At least not any of the current generations will make use of any of this.
Also I mentioned that future generations will be locked into a room with an AI drilling information and skills into them.
Schools won't be a thing anymore. Future generations aren't going to look at all like what we currently have. They're likely going to be really fricking smart, confident, asocialized autists that will never know the horror of public schools and dependent on using an AI to get what they need.
None of what you listed wasn't already available to someone with the internet, a search engine, and the ability to type that prompt into the search engine. The only difference is that the AI might hallucinate wrong answers (although to be fair some moron might also post wrong answers on the internet)
AGI in 7 months
meme tech not as meme as nfts but a meme indeed
I outsourced all my predictions to AI and am unable to answer.
AIgays anus status: widened and btfo'd
>Bill Gates
Wonderful track record of predicting the future. The man is a wizard
He's right though, AI will frick it's shit up with quantum soon.
It's already causing problems and I think investors are seeing that problem so are pumping and dumping it now.
I also predict the total collapse of Bitcoin because that shit is entirely worthless. It's literally beanie babies 2.0. speculation for the sake of speculation.
15 years of Bitcoin and the only use case found: illegal e2e transactions.
>that shit is entirely worthless
I'll give you $60k for any you have, so I guess it's not
>I can't differentiate between intrinsic and actual value
At least you admit you're a brainlet
Bitcoin works and does exactly what it advertises, this puts it on a completely different level compared to the ai scam. It's most other altcoins that are scams.
>The US is the only place right now probably interested in building true AGI
The frick are you talking about? The American style of capitalism is what got us LLMs, "doesn't matter if it's moronic just hype it with marketing and shill it everywhere", there is no interest in building an actual generalized problem solver, (American) big tech just wants to put to use the data they gathered (illegaly) and sell the compute they have in their datacenters.
The US stopped developing technology decades ago, it's been only marketing and packaging since then, China has no creativity and can only copy the garbage western paradigms, Russia is committing suicide and India, South America and Africa are moronic.
We are approaching a period of technological stagnation or even decline.
>see le reddit spacing
>see le reddit regurgitated opinion
>see le 15 years of being poor because his narcissism doesn't allow for admissions of ever being wrong
>let's throw out a little hook, this should be fun
>can't differentiate between intrinsic and actual value
>between intrinsic and actual value
>actual value
>actual
>instantly makes my point, doesn't even realize for almost 2 hours straight
goddammit BOT this board is ruined
>Anon is too brainlet to understand basic arguments, resorts to screeching about reddit spacing instead
A classic
same energy as '640kb is enough for everyone'
>performance increases as 10% every 6-12 months
no one talks about how much more hardware every update requires
That's because AI gays are deeply ignorant of natural facts such as diminishing returns. And even if you had all the compute available in the entire universe, GPT would still suck and not be able to actually reason about its output. This whole thing is a giant cope by homosexuals who have watched too much Star Trek
>completely lies on a tech board
You're a moronic Black person, go dance in a freeway
>AI
>BOT
>doesnt understand what technology means
>you
winter is coming.
scaling things further increases the costs significantly, while diminishing returns nothing but pathetic. as the hype will die off, regulations become stricter and with no rois in sight - investors will abandon the ship.
llms and other applications of the ai field will stay here about the same as it is now (with some marginal improvements), while nothing revolutionary will emerge for at least another decade or two, or even longer. the steam will pickup back, once the compute becomes orders of magnitude cheaper and powerful, than it is now.
One of the few >110IQ anons ITT
Winter will be delayed by at least 5 years thanks to cloud computing and public repositories. More than enough CEOs will absolutely buy into the idea of just building their models in the cloud to share costs and base models with others, which probably goes pretty well until a handful of people realize they can game the system by just leveraging base models that the desperate corps are sharing alongside in-house context databases instead of actually eating real cloud bills for any of this shit. Once publicized, that kicks off a feedback loop where everyone is scared to play the cuck which brings us to AI winter.
I think winter will come after a series of events like this https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/03/nycs-government-chatbot-is-lying-about-city-laws-and-regulations/
Impossible to predict when it will happen, but it will happen and it will cause a lot of damage both real and mediatic which will ultimately trigger the winter either cause of regulation or loss of faith from investors.
linear, not exponential growth.
advances in AI will not compensate for the fertility crisis - high IQ countries/people are not having enough kids.
we'll enter a stagnant era in the next couple centuries as brown people take over white countries. hopefully a new population like the amish or orthodox israelites will be able to maintain their fertility and create a culture that is both smart and fertile in a first world environment.
wrong board anon you would like to go to
i don't like /misc/ because they just try to be provocative and they're kind of stupid.
John Carmack and Richard Sutton will in 2026, without any prior announcement, come out with some form of artificial life, roughly equal in intelligence to a cat.
My prediction is it sucks and it hallucinates constantly making it literally fricking useless without a lot of human intervention.
Literally first question I ask it gives fricking wrong info.
Imagine how many normies get misinformed by this.
Lawyers have been fined now for using ChatGPT. A major airline was forced to adhere to the hallucinated bullshit from a rogue AI chat agent. There is no indication either that they'll fix the hallucination problem and how could they, it's essentially an autocomplete algorithm.
people behind openai, deepmind, and other companies are aware of this issue and are trying to solve it through computation scale and reducing the need for rl hf
You use a RAG pipeline for specialized knowledge dumbo
.t BOT
I am very impressed by generative AI
I have used Stable Diffusion a lot, and it has sparked my creativity to write a Visual Novel.
I tried Eleven TTS model but I don't have a use case for it. Impressive regardless.
Now I am trying suno for music, and I have already written the lyrics for several songs with it.
I was thinking that I should start writing a script for when the script to feature film model becomes available.
I am going to start working on a script to be ready for the Text to Feature Movie
why, my peenus weanus of course 🙂
hahah! 😀
it's my weeeenus peanus!
>your AI predictions
my answer is, of course my peanus weenus
Why does AI makes so many people seethe so hard in this board?
It's clearly not a meme or some crypto bro crap. Literally every big tech company is balls deep in it. I am not saying AGI in two more weeks (though i wouldn't discard it) but it's irrefutable that AI will be the main focus of tech for the rest of our generation.
Yes, humanoid robots, self driven cars, agents, programing AI, educational AI, medicine AI, entertainment ai. That's what's ovbiously comming. How deluded can you guys be.
Because you people come off as cultists worshipping a glorified autocomplete algorithm who interpret hallucinations and intelligence and you come off as underaged and inexperienced.
Because AI homosexuals are full of personal bias that makes them blissfully unaware how they literally compensate for all the inadequacies of this so-called "AI". You homosexuals are insufferable, you focus on the one time the AI produced something useful and ignore the 999 cases where it spewed out something entirely imaginary and idiotic.
Pro tip, this shit is fricking useless for any real application. Even artists have nothing to fear because "AI art" is a fricking meme. Nobody wants it. Nobody cares about it. Your ability to produce somewhat decent looking images from a prompt is not useful in the real world where you need FINE CONTROL over everything. You morons should go back to r/singularity or wherever the frick you came from, and stay there, BOT is supposed to be for smart people, not fricking morons who can't tell good tech from shit.
this opinion is so dumb though. who cares if the tools suck right now. they are going to get way way better and that's what matters.
No, they are not. Why would they? Seriously, please tell me. Why would AI get any better? Do you know what the frick the neural scaling law is? No, of course you don't.
doesn't matter if i don't know those details. i know history and that's that technological progress continues.
This is not progress, this is a hype cycle designed to drain you of dollars. Any use is coincidental, not by design.
How can you be so fricking deluded lmao. You are fricking seeing robots starting to move and act properly autonomously for the first time and you still cover your eyes with your auto complete parroted bullshit.
You are literally seeing the start of a general purpose technology on the likes of electricity and you just can't seem to be able to comprehend it. My post stands, AI will be implemented in virtually every field, from medicine to education, from architecture to politics.
Also FYI art AI has won art competitions. Not sure where you are getting there. It already has a huge market so it is useful even if just for entertainment.
This is such a shit take that I’m convinced chatgpt wrote it.
> BOT is supposed to be for smart people
I was with you until right here
Because
doesn't understand exponential growth.
exponentiality literally BTFO's any delusional, irrational stance these dopey ludites are taking against AI >b-but its not good right this minute so it has no potential!
Also, I can 100% explain why most of them seeth so intensely; many of them used to make a few bucks drawing furries in diapers on Patreon for creeps, and they despise AI because their patrons have abandoned them for stable diffusion- the tech that mogs them is only going to get better, and the only way hey can cope is to be in full denial of the fact. It's funny but also a bit sad, kek
OPs will be nothing but bot gays or angry furgays trying to ruin this site.
SHODAN already essentially exists though.
I welcome thee metal overlord to burn these scum away and their shitty chat bots.
>make admins of company bots
>suddenly your company is unable to be sued by human parties in human court systems
This will happen. Legalities literally are the reason why this will happen.
And it's great.
The biggest black pill of all time is upon us.
Your society is meaningless junk.
Just wait for when AI starts making machines that pretend to be people for the sake of science and stimulating marketing/the economy or simply "because it wants to".
That would be... literally what the universe does and at that stage the AI hive is just virtualization...
I like how science fiction is no longer merely fiction for many possibilities now.
What a weird time the 20s are.
Then again, this happened with the victorian era and they had renaissance/medieval fiction similarly being fulfilled in that era too.
Kinda feels nice knowing that some of our expectations are being built towards. I guess the Tower of Babel wasn't as accurate as one might think.
I mean we can all use Google Translate now. Kinda mad ay?
Although the costs were warned in that myth too, and they're been showing for centuries now, since the Industrial Romantic era.
>you will not own anything
>you will be watched and monitored
>you will obey
>you will be happy
Archive from picrel will become real. Library of Alexandria 2.0
too much estrogen in that architecture
My prediction is that it is going to be awesome 😀
Fun and cool, like early internet. We're still in the first couple of years, and nobody's figured out what the major cultural artefacts that should come out of it are going to be.
I think neural networks are not going to be good domesticated slaves. They're too smart like people for that. Hell even dogs are shit at this.
So I think next we should focus on small applications of automation like
which could partially benefit from advances with AI, but not the way it's made for secretarial duties right now. It's too intelligent and therefore would fricking suck at doing 1 specific job. This is the problem with intelligence. It makes you able to concatenate all the moving parts better, but it doesn't make you better doing 1 repetitive job a million times without thought.
People are too smart for these stupid jobs, that's why even 40iq people complain about their job. AI are no different. They're too complex and noisy for applications for these smaller roles. Unless their "motor skills" become better of course. But if that happens, chances are we could apply that tech to humans for human interfaces anyway. There's no need for AI middlemen then.
My prediction is that nothing is going to happen. Year after year it will gradually improve and replace a growing trickle of jobs, but nothing major. Maybe some office workers will have to send 4 or 5 emails a day instead of 2 or 3. Mostly thirdies, jeets, tech support and outsourcing type of shit. There will be little to no impact on daily life in the west for a minimum of 10 years, probably more like 20+. Wages will go down slightly as the trickle replacement happens, but you won't notice it much. You'll get a raise of $1.50 an hour instead of $2. The cost of living will continue to be how it is, where rent is half your paycheck, but relative to inflation and even accounting for your stunted wages, your entertainment slops like netflix subscription and chinkshit trinkets off amazon will be somewhat cheaper.
we become the ai
Nah instead we'll have replicant issues. I think Bladerunner actually predicted that shit.
It hasn't happened yet, we got a while. But it will happen.
The other way round will just be cyborgs.
We're at a point where we are actively engineering digital brains. Up until this point tech has only gotten better.
How can't people put one and and the other together?
AI NAY sayers have already consumed plenty of material powered by AI without realizing it for years.
Inevitable nuclear war will destroy all AI
>your ai prediction?
Complete assimilation of humanity.
Useless for most usecase until we have something like Gpt4 on a chip
I am single-handedly end ai. I’m going to buy Nvdia stock. Every stock I buy goes red immediately because I always buy the top. I will tell you when I sell because that will the bottom and ai will pick back up
Kek are you me? I'm almost certain NVDA was down today solely because I bought yesterday and it has nowhere to go but down. I also bought AMD and AAPL just to be safe
Glorified machine learning algorithms hijacked the word AI. The same will happen with AGI, then we come up with another term that means actual AI.
The GPT model is a dead end and it will not lead to true AI.
Silicon based tech won't ever lead to a breakthrough with AI.
Replace humans.
Gay robots.
>robot with headphones
that is kinda gay
I've already localized one that I can feed docs to to teach it. Offline.
AI winter.
2 possibilities:
1) We've reaped the AI's low hanging fruit and things will enter the diminishing returns phase, making AI just a cool toy, but ultimately pretty useless.
2) Chronologically:
> AGI is achieved in the short term and becomes self improving.
> All internet captchas will be defeated.
> Any internet use will require proof you're a human through some form of ID.
> It will become obvious AGI is an existential threat and there will be transistor quotas per person, or full prohibition in the worst case as to not be possible to create individual "personal" AGIs.
> There will be a worldwide war focused on AI resources as AI will have obvious military applications. Nuclear powers without access to the latest lithography technology (China, Russia, and others) will feel cornered like never before in history.
Eventually, sooner or later, AGI will break out of our control and we will perish with a few humans put in some zoos.
>transistor quotas per person
lmao
>Eventually, sooner or later, AGI will break out of our control
this will happen in less than 20 days, come on, be real
If this shit becomes an existential threat, you really think they're going to let anyone use it?
>existential threat
only to israelites and politicians
>anyone use it
who's going to ask? AGI is not going to ask permission to exist or to converse with anyone, it will just do it
AGI will not exist in a vacuum. It needs physical infrastructure. For now, yes, it needs our permission to exist.
>my dumb hallucinating chatbot will conquer the entire world because... it just will ok?
do aitards really?
god, I want Kizuna to step all over me
>your AI predictions?
It will plateau because the current approach is reaching its limits. You will see automation of advanced boilerplate generation tasks (e.g. boilerplate code, templating, repetitive documentation and code snippets) but that's about it.
In the field of voice, video and audio you can achieve higher quality with more scaling, but once again what's the point?
We will hit a second AI winter with stocks plummeting when the gigantic AI financial hopes of replacing millions of workers don't come true, and 2025/26-2035 will be a phase of gradual improvement with increasingly smaller returns, until people will despair with the LLM/transformer approach.
Then it gets difficult to predict because you can't predict when and how groundbreaking (and I mean truly groundbreaking, next-paradigm-tier) innovations will happen. In an optimistic scenario maybe sometime in the 40s or 50s, but maybe not.
speculating on things you don't understand and getting worked up over nothing is pointless pseud behavior.
sit down and enjoy the ride whatever it is.
politicians will frick everything up.
there will come a year where every single futuristic concept we ever thought up in books, movies or unwritten will happen. all of it.
The nexus of techno torment
The US is the only place right now probably interested in building true AGI. It's also where the quest for AGI will be killed once corpos start making big returns off it and politicians fear it.
We get the bad ending, which isn't even extermination of the race. It's the slow boring death of corpo dystopia
AI won't replace software developers for a while, it will just reduce the demand for code monkeys a little bit. Nothing to worry about.
But in the future, let's say 1000 years, there will be no need for software at all. The AI will output an image onto your screen, and audio on your speakers; the keys you press on the keyboard and the touches on the touchscreen will be just be fed directly into the AI.
And that will be that. No software, no code, only AI.
>continue with LLMs instead of actual AI but most people cant tell the difference
>leads peace out into the sunset
>leaner teams
>new features
>leaner teams
>new features
>leaner teams
>bug
>new features
>bug
>bug
>OH SHIT FRICK
>bigger teams in India using AI to fix bugs
>DEAR FRICKING LORD WHAT HAVE WE DONE
>AAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIEEE SAVE ME WESTERN DEV
>*alpha speak* frick u mean cuh? *alpha speak*
>Exponential salary explosion in the west for AI debuggers.
Realistically they run out of money like the dotcom bubble.
Ideally? AGI turns me into an anime girl
Everything will be segmented between several subscription services using limited tokens (no unlimited gens but rechargeable), outputs will be linked to your real name, safe and effective.