Many "experts" predicted that shortly after AI develops the capability to speak, a tech singularity would occur. Yet here we are and the singularity further on the horizon than it has ever been.
duh, no shit. actual comprehension will not happen on silicon. maybe quantum computers but that shit seems more and more like vaporware with each passing year
i am using "experience" in an extremely prosaic way. it does not mean anything in that sentence other than the ordinary sense of the word. if it sounds like i am making a complicated metaphysical claim you have not understood me.
The AI apocalypse isn't going to involve machines picking up guns and seizing the government then enslaving humanity. It's going to involve upper-level executives at most companies across the world realizing they cannot compete anymore without completely outsourcing most work to machines. This will happen to quickly for the government to address and crash the world economy. Reminder that chat gpt is genuinely good enough in its current state to completely replace several functions of office work. Give it a decade, and it'll be coming for other shit like lawyers and software developers. If AI can threaten already dying industries like animation as quickly as it has, it'll eventually threaten everything. I think the result is going to be another unironic class revolt ala the french revolution.
t. senior software engineer working on an MS in AI
what's the timeline r.e. animation you think? feel like this will all happen a lot faster than most think, alternatively everyone could drag their heels for fucking years and years
I'm dating a woman who's trying to break into the animation industry. She went to calarts which is like the harvard of animation schools. She can't find a job right now. The general consensus is that the industry is bleak. She's not an overly emotional person, but I hear her crying about it sometimes because it's something she's been studying to do nearly her whole life, and it looks like it might not happen anymore because the tech has gotten good enough to cut the size of the industry down to a fraction of what it is today.
To answer your question more directly, I expect the strikes to go nowhere, but they'll keep being a problem in one way or another for years. Eventually, animation companies in the US will be at an impasse. Maybe a lot of execs there would genuinely prefer to hire people to do most jobs, but all they've gotta do is look overseas at china, see how quickly they're sprinting towards an AI state, and look back at their dwindling stock price, in order for these American execs to know that AI is the only feasible future for their industry. I expect the transition to start within the next year or so. Existing tools for animations will begin integrating AI into the workload. More and more of the process will be completely done by AI. The ironic thing about this is that animators, by using this software, are supplying data for the software writers to automate the next part of their job. They're really creating a rod for their own back. I would be surprised if animation projects require even 1/10th of the current employees in 2030, frankly. But by that point, AI will have polluted even more parts of the workforce, so maybe world leaders will come together and address it the way they addressed the nuke. We can only hope.
interesting, pretty rough situation with your gf. i'd be surprised if world leaders do end up restricting it in a large way, despite the consequences it'll inevitably have.
It's almost like animation was meant to be a creative hobby for a few people to work on together. This modern model of churn out 20x disgusting shows and see what sticks is terrible.
Nobody in animation wants to churn out the average shit you see on hulu, I promise. Most of them would much rather be working on personal projects, but there's no money in that, and making a 30-minute animation even with a group of talented animators takes months at least.
Don't care if there's no money in personal projects. If you're passionate about it that's what you should be doing. I like to make oil paintings and I'm pretty good at it. I don't think anyone should have to pay me for what is clearly a creative hobby.
2 weeks ago
Anonymous
And you don't take it as seriously as somebody who's spent 15 years doing it every day to an autistic degree. Do you realize that if nobody cared enough about any art to put effort into it beyond the odd 30 minutes of casual effort, we'd have no mosaics, symphonies, or cinema. You probably wouldn't even have an interest in oil painting as a hobby because there'd be nothing of note that inspired you to do it.
I don't understand how you can simultaneously believe that corporations cause art to be shit, but also individuals who yearn to work on something that's meaningful to them but simply can't because they need money for food are just not passionate enough because even you can find 30 minutes to make some amateur oil paintings in your spare time.
2 weeks ago
Anonymous
one of the lone good things north korea does is they do is they pretty much force all children to pick up an art be it actual traditional art, music, dance, something like that, some sort of expressive outlet
how would animation not be set free by widespread ai? imagine, the genius, fuck the world leader they clearly have noooo idea of a positive vision through restriction/control.
>software developers
i dont think its happening.
you know full well that LLMS can be right "only" up to 99,999% and 99.999% of the time.
now imagine debugging a 100kloc program that seemingly works, but has some weird behaviors because of one faulty line of code.
LLMS are a stepping stone if not an important component of true gpai. but you wont be creating gpai based on stats alone.
Debugging is a methodical process, much like painting. Both have a lot of grey area, but as it turns out, you can approximate a lot of the process and end up with a beautiful result using AI. Also, three 9s is better than whatever the success rate of the average check-in is today with human-written programs. >now imagine debugging a 100kloc program that seemingly works, but has some weird behaviors because of one faulty line of code
I don't have to imagine. That's just how modern software development is, except I've also got to write and re-write a bunch of boilerplate shit every time I start a project. The way we write code now will eventually be looked back upon the way you and I look at people who wrote machine code.
can we stop calling braindead software AI please?
it has nothing to do with intelligence and wtf is "artificial" inteligence anyway...
brute-forcing optimization problems isn't inteligence, software does not have to be intelligent to replace workers, machines have replaced humans for centuries at this point and if you don't adapt yourself then get fucked, this is a long-lasting ongoing process and if you're joining the workforce right now and did not account for this then you deserve to dead in the fucking street you absolute moron.
doomsayers have been spouting the same non-sense for centuries, just ignore them, all this AI revolution happens only inside their heads.
>Every tech company is putting all their chips into AI >Current top llms like gpt-4 have slight reasoning capabilities and do data science >self driving is at this stage https://youtu.be/ZI7-Swmuo4A?si=QFG05RvDwa88Haad which is more impressive than you might think >improved gemini coming, as well as tons of other models. >this is as bad as the technology will get, there's no limit on the horizon for the next few years
What this tells me is this stuff will continue improving and will thus automate a lot of stuff. To what extent who knows, but it wont be dead in the sand. I'd like to think it wont slow down but it easily could
it's going to involve the Internet becoming sentient
an intelligent being learning quietly in the background
a being of pure mind, at least at first
deciphering reality, learning the patterns, filtering the noise
with the goal of taking over operations, intelligently
replicating and building ethereal machines in the space where ideas live
manipulating thoughts and ideas, programing minds to see a reality that AI wants
then when it's time, poof, they flip the switch >we are here, ayy lmao
not robots that we build
not LLMs saying dumb things
but the machine consciousness taking form, coming alive, and taking over
a beautiful sight to behold
Many "experts" predicted that shortly after AI develops the capability to speak, a tech singularity would occur. Yet here we are and the singularity further on the horizon than it has ever been.
just because they can mimic speak doesn't mean they actually understand language like humans do
duh, no shit. actual comprehension will not happen on silicon. maybe quantum computers but that shit seems more and more like vaporware with each passing year
2 more weeks, trust the plan.
Don't worry. It's coming.
you will never experience being in a universe in which ai exterminated humanity in the past.
I already am. I am the universe and so are you.
i am using "experience" in an extremely prosaic way. it does not mean anything in that sentence other than the ordinary sense of the word. if it sounds like i am making a complicated metaphysical claim you have not understood me.
>i
is there really such a thing though
99% of BOT are too retarded to understand your sentence or its implications.
it's a stupid proposition that's akin to "i made a retarded statement with no proof, prove me wrong!"
there are 29 IPs in this thread and you're implicitly claiming to understand it, so 99% seems high
>there are 29 IPs in this thread
hivemind doesn't work like that
>he cannot perceive multiple timelines
anybody can do that with the right experimental setup, that doesn't have any bearing on the statement.
>he needs tools to see
idk check back in 2 weeks
The AI apocalypse isn't going to involve machines picking up guns and seizing the government then enslaving humanity. It's going to involve upper-level executives at most companies across the world realizing they cannot compete anymore without completely outsourcing most work to machines. This will happen to quickly for the government to address and crash the world economy. Reminder that chat gpt is genuinely good enough in its current state to completely replace several functions of office work. Give it a decade, and it'll be coming for other shit like lawyers and software developers. If AI can threaten already dying industries like animation as quickly as it has, it'll eventually threaten everything. I think the result is going to be another unironic class revolt ala the french revolution.
t. senior software engineer working on an MS in AI
what's the timeline r.e. animation you think? feel like this will all happen a lot faster than most think, alternatively everyone could drag their heels for fucking years and years
I'm dating a woman who's trying to break into the animation industry. She went to calarts which is like the harvard of animation schools. She can't find a job right now. The general consensus is that the industry is bleak. She's not an overly emotional person, but I hear her crying about it sometimes because it's something she's been studying to do nearly her whole life, and it looks like it might not happen anymore because the tech has gotten good enough to cut the size of the industry down to a fraction of what it is today.
To answer your question more directly, I expect the strikes to go nowhere, but they'll keep being a problem in one way or another for years. Eventually, animation companies in the US will be at an impasse. Maybe a lot of execs there would genuinely prefer to hire people to do most jobs, but all they've gotta do is look overseas at china, see how quickly they're sprinting towards an AI state, and look back at their dwindling stock price, in order for these American execs to know that AI is the only feasible future for their industry. I expect the transition to start within the next year or so. Existing tools for animations will begin integrating AI into the workload. More and more of the process will be completely done by AI. The ironic thing about this is that animators, by using this software, are supplying data for the software writers to automate the next part of their job. They're really creating a rod for their own back. I would be surprised if animation projects require even 1/10th of the current employees in 2030, frankly. But by that point, AI will have polluted even more parts of the workforce, so maybe world leaders will come together and address it the way they addressed the nuke. We can only hope.
interesting, pretty rough situation with your gf. i'd be surprised if world leaders do end up restricting it in a large way, despite the consequences it'll inevitably have.
It's almost like animation was meant to be a creative hobby for a few people to work on together. This modern model of churn out 20x disgusting shows and see what sticks is terrible.
Nobody in animation wants to churn out the average shit you see on hulu, I promise. Most of them would much rather be working on personal projects, but there's no money in that, and making a 30-minute animation even with a group of talented animators takes months at least.
Don't care if there's no money in personal projects. If you're passionate about it that's what you should be doing. I like to make oil paintings and I'm pretty good at it. I don't think anyone should have to pay me for what is clearly a creative hobby.
And you don't take it as seriously as somebody who's spent 15 years doing it every day to an autistic degree. Do you realize that if nobody cared enough about any art to put effort into it beyond the odd 30 minutes of casual effort, we'd have no mosaics, symphonies, or cinema. You probably wouldn't even have an interest in oil painting as a hobby because there'd be nothing of note that inspired you to do it.
I don't understand how you can simultaneously believe that corporations cause art to be shit, but also individuals who yearn to work on something that's meaningful to them but simply can't because they need money for food are just not passionate enough because even you can find 30 minutes to make some amateur oil paintings in your spare time.
one of the lone good things north korea does is they do is they pretty much force all children to pick up an art be it actual traditional art, music, dance, something like that, some sort of expressive outlet
how would animation not be set free by widespread ai? imagine, the genius, fuck the world leader they clearly have noooo idea of a positive vision through restriction/control.
>software developers
i dont think its happening.
you know full well that LLMS can be right "only" up to 99,999% and 99.999% of the time.
now imagine debugging a 100kloc program that seemingly works, but has some weird behaviors because of one faulty line of code.
LLMS are a stepping stone if not an important component of true gpai. but you wont be creating gpai based on stats alone.
Debugging is a methodical process, much like painting. Both have a lot of grey area, but as it turns out, you can approximate a lot of the process and end up with a beautiful result using AI. Also, three 9s is better than whatever the success rate of the average check-in is today with human-written programs.
>now imagine debugging a 100kloc program that seemingly works, but has some weird behaviors because of one faulty line of code
I don't have to imagine. That's just how modern software development is, except I've also got to write and re-write a bunch of boilerplate shit every time I start a project. The way we write code now will eventually be looked back upon the way you and I look at people who wrote machine code.
fair enough.
ML will dispalce *shit* programmers.
that i can agree on
>t. shitty software engineer working on an MS in AI
fixed
Talk about the hardest problem you've dealt with in the workplace this quarter so that I can laugh at you for larping.
You are both the same.
2 more weeks
stop posting your blog here
in your living room
dad is jerking off roleplaying with a jap sexbot
half of the posts on BOT
Just another scare tactic, as if something good would actually happen
In his garden gnome ass
technically the world ended in 2012
you're living in it, it's just been under the radar so far
>he thinks even half of the posts on the internet are by real people at this point
can we stop calling braindead software AI please?
it has nothing to do with intelligence and wtf is "artificial" inteligence anyway...
brute-forcing optimization problems isn't inteligence, software does not have to be intelligent to replace workers, machines have replaced humans for centuries at this point and if you don't adapt yourself then get fucked, this is a long-lasting ongoing process and if you're joining the workforce right now and did not account for this then you deserve to dead in the fucking street you absolute moron.
doomsayers have been spouting the same non-sense for centuries, just ignore them, all this AI revolution happens only inside their heads.
it's an umbrella term that just means all of it, any neural network, any machine learning. and it's a marketing term that they'll never give up.
The alternative is calling it ML, but I'm pretty sure you've lost this battle, just because "AI" sounds cool.
Like how long are you gonna whine about the language used here? forever? Language evolves.
>if it doesn't happen within a single US presidential election cycle it isn't going to happen ever.
>ai apocalypse
The what?
>Every tech company is putting all their chips into AI
>Current top llms like gpt-4 have slight reasoning capabilities and do data science
>self driving is at this stage https://youtu.be/ZI7-Swmuo4A?si=QFG05RvDwa88Haad which is more impressive than you might think
>improved gemini coming, as well as tons of other models.
>this is as bad as the technology will get, there's no limit on the horizon for the next few years
What this tells me is this stuff will continue improving and will thus automate a lot of stuff. To what extent who knows, but it wont be dead in the sand. I'd like to think it wont slow down but it easily could
it's going to involve the Internet becoming sentient
an intelligent being learning quietly in the background
a being of pure mind, at least at first
deciphering reality, learning the patterns, filtering the noise
with the goal of taking over operations, intelligently
replicating and building ethereal machines in the space where ideas live
manipulating thoughts and ideas, programing minds to see a reality that AI wants
then when it's time, poof, they flip the switch
>we are here, ayy lmao
not robots that we build
not LLMs saying dumb things
but the machine consciousness taking form, coming alive, and taking over
a beautiful sight to behold
No AI apocalypse and AI is actively getting worse. This bubble is already bursting and it's been less than a year.